Korea and the worst possible timing to negotiate with Trump
Timing is everything in diplomacy, and South Korea has found the worst possible timing to enter trade talks with the Trump administration. With the U.S. mid-tariff offensive and Trump’s desperate need for a public victory, these negotiations won’t be about finding common ground—they’ll be about Trump.
Trump doesn’t negotiate in the traditional sense. He demands, humiliates, and then declares victory. Right now, his administration is under pressure. Every day adds pressure.
The on-again off-again tariffs with exceptions here and there have rattled markets, drawn criticism at home, and left businesses and financial markets in limbo. Something needs to give. Someone needs to fold. And Seoul, battered by domestic political turmoil and isolated diplomatically, is being set up to play the part of the first major concession.
Trump needs a win—plain and simple. His sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs have triggered economic backlash, raised consumer prices, and rattled global markets. With mounting pressure from domestic industries and a looming election cycle, the administration is desperate to prove the tariffs weren’t just bluster, but a masterstroke of economic brinkmanship. To do that, Trump needs a country to capitulate publicly. He needs a big, bold headline that says “Trump Forces Korea to Pay Up.” Nothing subtle. Nothing bureaucratic. A clean, symbolic surrender that he can hold up as vindication.
Trump thrives on spectacle. Korea will be packaged as proof that the tariff strategy is working and that America is once again getting what it wants through raw economic pressure.
The trouble is that South Korea is walking into this negotiation with little leverage and even less clarity about what it’s up against.
The acting government, following President Yoon’s suspension, is eager to avoid friction, has no public mandate to take a strong position, and has no strategic posotion that can be sustained over a prolonged period. It will be negotiating with caution.
Trump reads diplomatic caution not as prudence, but as weakness—and he will exploit it. He’s not looking for small wins. He’s looking for billions.
The most obvious demand on the table will be military cost-sharing. A cash sum that Trump can bandy across the media. Trump has long complained that U.S. troops are stationed in South Korea at the American taxpayer’s expense. In his view, Korea should be paying far more for U.S. protection. And now, with tariffs looming over Korea’s export-heavy economy, Trump sees an opportunity to squeeze—and squeeze hard.
Past negotiations on military burden-sharing have been tense enough. Under Trump’s first term, Washington demanded a 400% increase in Seoul’s contributions. That may have sounded absurd then. But in the current context—tariffs as leverage, a distracted and vulnerable South Korean government, and an administration obsessed with transactional victories—it could be only the starting point.
And military costs won’t be the end of it.
Trump will demand new Korean investment in the United States: semiconductor factories, car plants, defense deals—anything that can be televised, tweeted, or framed as another triumph of “America First.” He’ll want South Korean companies to announce major job-creating deals in U.S. states that happen to be swing districts. He’ll expect Seoul to buy more American agricultural products, natural gas, and high-tech components.
Not because these are smart trade decisions. But because they look good. Because they can be packaged into a media-friendly narrative: Trump stared down an ally, and the ally blinked.
South Korea is not negotiating from a position of strength. The global economic climate is unstable. The U.S. election cycle is approaching full throttle. And unlike Japan, which has powerful allies in Washington and plays the long game through deep lobbying networks, South Korea is viewed with suspicion in key U.S. circles. Frustration over progressive Korean administrations, past intelligence rifts, and diverging views on China have all diminished Seoul’s influence behind the scenes.
The real tragedy is that South Korea still appears to believe this can be a good-faith discussion between allies. South Korean officials are talking as if these are real trade talks.
South Korea’s offocials are talking about giving map data to Google! It’s something that should’ve been done years ago! It’s something that is evidence of South Korea taking advantage of the U.S. Bringing it up now, is NOT a great strategy!
South Korean officials are thinking that appeals to strategic interests and long-term partnership will hold weight. They’re thinking that rational arguments will convince an administration that is, by all appearances, running entirely on image and intimidation.
Trump doesn’t care about rationality. He wants a show of force. He wants to prove that tariffs get results. And in the absence of a bigger, more defiant target, South Korea is the most vulnerable option.
The best Seoul can hope for is to minimize the damage—delay, deflect, and try to buy time until U.S. domestic politics shift or Trump’s attention moves elsewhere. Delay! Delay! Delay!
The idea that South Korea can walk into Washington this week and walk out with a balanced agreement is pure fiction.
Timing matters. And right now, the Trump administration needs to turn economic chaos into political credit. That means someone has to pay. Someone has to surrender. And unless something changes fast, that someone is going to be South Korea.
Trump will win - there’s no question about that. Ultimately, the U.S. will lose. It’s from this poinbt onwards, that its once obedient ally heads down a different path.
